The title of our 2024 outlook summarizes the recent pivot in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) stance toward monetary policy. It has huge implications for the economy going forward, as the Fed’s reaction function has shifted from one aimed at quelling outsized inflation to one looking to remove monetary restrictions and avoid recession. The boost to financial conditions should help offset the slowing growth trajectory and, as a result, should help keep the economy from dipping into a recession. Our base case is for sub-trend growth (in other words, a growth recession), as we believe the Fed will be much quicker to ease if the economy starts to wobble. The key will be whether inflation stays tame or not.